Republicans, Be Wary of a President Giuliani: Why a Rudy Presidency Holds Great Risks for the GOP

The most recent Time poll has former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leading Senator John McCain, 38% to 24% among Republicans. In a January poll McCain led Giuliani by four points. This is very disturbing news for both the McCain and Romney camps, particularly because in the same poll America’s Mayor beats both Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton head-to-head by three and four points, respectively. He is clearly the man to beat among Republicans, and possibly among all candidates in the race.

While Giuliani is perhaps the most formidable general election candidate to square off against the Democrats next November, Republicans should be wary of a Giuliani presidency, and here are just three reasons why:

1. The Courts: Given Giuliani’s liberal-leaning views on social issues; his history of judicial appointments while mayor of New York City; and in spite of his pandering on a predisposition to appoint Scalias, Robertses, and Alitos, when faced with a moderate-majority (one made up Democrats and moderate Republicans), and a possibly Democratic-controlled Senate, Rudy will likely appoint jurists more in the mold of O’Connor, ones who will adjudicate from the center and uphold precedent. He is likely to do so for reasons of political expediency, electability (his election and reelection will rely on a large amount of support from independents, and he will have an ’84 electoral landslide in his sights for 2012), and because that is where his politics more closely lie. This means, Rove v. Wade will likely remain safely in tact under a Giuliani administration.
2. The Republican electoral coalition: The three major political camps within the GOP currently are the hawks, the fiscal conservatives, and the religious conservatives (of course many fall into some combination of the three). Rudy Giuliani falls into the former two and will likely govern from there, allowing him to maintain his label as a moderate to average voters. On fiscal matters he will preach for limited government and lower taxes, and on foreign policy matters he will pursue a strategy that is every bit as hawkish as the current Administration’s, after all, he is banking his election largely on being seen as strong on national security matters. The group within the Republican constituency that will be left out will be religious conservatives. Giuliani will triangulate much like Bill Clinton did. He will appease two important parts of his base through foreign and tax policy, and on social issues (and a few domestic priorities), he will co-opt Democratic positions. He is likely to support greater environmentalism than the current president, he will likely support stem-cell research, and he is unlikely to be a crusader against Roe v. Wade or for issues like school prayer or a Constitutional ban on gay marriage. After either four or eight years, religious conservatives will find themselves very disaffected with a Giuliani administration, leading to either a primary challenge in ’12 or an uninspired base that will require much work to reinvigorate.
3. The overall Republican Party: After four or eight years of a Giuliani administration, a fissure will likely exist and religious conservatives will find themselves in ’12 relatively unmotivated for his reelection or supporting Primary challenge. In ’16, assuming Rudy is reelected, religious conservatives will attempt to reassert their importance in the Party, but war and fiscal hawks, having enjoyed eight years of front-and-center importance will be resistant to ceding influence and power. They will argue that Giuliani is the model for the future of Republican presidential candidates – fiscally conservative, hawkish on defense, but socially moderate. Yet, as was the case with Clinton, so long as conservatives from the South, those most likely to come from the religious wing, continue to have a strong influence in Congress, it is unclear that Rudy will be able to put any Blue states in play past his candidacy or change any Purple states Red. That is to say, Giuliani probably will not shift the Republican Party’s ideology markedly; he will only expose underlying tensions within it. His electoral success will thus be the beneficiary of ticket-splitting in Purple and Blue states.

While Rudolph Giuliani may be the politically expedient choice for GOP voters, and while they may be willing to cede ground on social issues for the retention of the White House for four more years, Republicans should be mindful that Bill Clinton’s popularity was held in check by Republican majorities in both chambers of the Congress for six of his eight years. His popularity did not translate to Democratic success at local levels. The Party was out of power for fourteen years.