Iran and Nukes

Iran is going to pursue nukes and anyone who says otherwise, Republican or Democrat, American or non-American, is simply refusing to look at the logical options for that country. Here's how it will play out:

Iran will negotiate with the Europeans trying to force some niceties out of the U.S. and a recognition of their right to pursue nuclear fuel. In secret, they will go ahead with their determination to acquire nukes. If caught again, they will go through the next round of song and dance and they will do it just fine. Europe will not want to cut off communication to a country that has already been accused of supporting terrorists. To cast them completely into rogue status would only be to push them further into the embrace of terrorists will be the thinking. In addition, that beautiful thick black liquid that Iran has so much of will give it additional leverage in their Charleston Two Step. It will also be argued that we need to avoid alienating Iran as well given it's extremely large young population that desires a more moderate regime and increased democracy, seen as a potentially revolutionary force over the next twenty years in the West.

Lastly, save sanctions, what other options will there be? China and Russia certainly will not engage militarily. The U.K. and the rest of NATO are too shy without strong American presence, and the United States government (let alone it's people) are not about to get into another military conflict in the Middle East when the two current ones are draining our economic and political capital. We also will need to be even more cognizant of Shiite sentiments in Iraq that will not take too kindly to a military conflict with its Shiite brethren in Iran. And of course their is the added dead weight loss of further pissing off the rest of the Islamic world that the U.S. will not want to incur at a time when winning hearts and minds seems to be the War on Terror game plan. If we are convinced Iran is pursuing Nukes, it will also be an infinitedly more impossible task to convince the U.N. after the Iraq debacle.

One way or another, either getting caught more times or covertly, Iran will press on until they secure nukes. Given the rest of the world's unwillingness or inability to credibly substantially enact repercussions, why would they not? For them, there is a tremendous amount to gain. Once they have acquired nuclear weaponry, their borders will be infinitely more secure from a U.S. invation over the short term. Over the long term, new conflicts may arise with Pakistan or India or China or even North Korea (all this to say that the geopolitical future is uncertain) and nukes will secure them against these enemies as well. For a country like Iran who is not known for its military mite, nukes somewhat level the playing (or should I say, battle) field. The United States can more easily make the decision to go to war against a non-nuclear country than a nuclear one. This is the reason why Cold War battles were staged using other countries as stand-ins. We could release our pent-up aggression and fight our wars through much less dangerous indirect players.

So this all begs the questions, who will respond and how should they? The U.S. will have military options to make air strikes from either Afghanistan or Uzbekistan. The Israels will undoubtedly consider air strikes on nuclear facilities as well. The Europeans will look to continue talks, but will any of this be fruitful? Certainly nukes in the hands of another nation no matter which one is not a postive occurrence. However, are the other options worse? That is to say, any military strikes against Iran will have political repercussions for the U.S. or Israel with implications in the War on Terror. In addition, if military strikes are made (an essential declaration of war) and Iran still acquires nukes, this only increases the likelihood of that nation putting them in the hands of terrorists (though this would seriously undermine the defensive purpose the weapons might serve). Sanctions will largely be ineffective if Iran is determined to obtain nukes because once it does, sanctions no longer serve a purpose and the economic benefit of lifting them will be too great an incentive. One last option is to play Iran's little game and to become much friendlier with them. If they feel secure and are economically tied to the West, there is a much greater chance that it will use it nukes purely for defensive purposes. The pitfall here is that it requires backing down from a country determined to acquire nuclear capabilities which is egregiously problematic and sends a horrible message to the rest of the non-nuclear world. There are tough questions ahead that will have to be answered and re-answered as more countries push for nuclear capabilities. The right course of action is not clear but it is necessary.